FC Basel 1893
vs
FC Sion
Super League prediction
The model makes it 45% FC Basel 1893, 27% draw, 28% FC Sion — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Basel 1893 1.46, FC Sion 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Basel 1893
- W4-2FC Thun9 August 2026
- L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026
FC Sion
- W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
- W3-0FC Luzern2 August 2026
- L2-4away to BSC Young Boys26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion
- 26 April 2026FC Basel 1893 0–2 FC SionSuper League
- 12 February 2026FC Sion 2–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 18 January 2026FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC SionSuper League
- 30 August 2025FC Sion 0–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 1 March 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC SionSuper League
- 26 January 2025FC Basel 1893 4–1 FC SionSuper League
Leading scorers
FC Basel 1893
- A. Sow2 goals2 assists
FC Sion
- Winsley Boteli Mokango2 goals1 assists
- D. Rrudhani2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Basel 1893 carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.59 for FC Sion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Basel 1893 W-L-W; FC Sion L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.11 for FC Sion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Basel 1893 rate 0.64 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Sion rate 0.72 and 1.21.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Sion, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Basel 1893 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 against 1.11 for FC Sion. FC Basel 1893's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.21 for FC Sion.