FK Partizan
vs
FK Tobol Kostanay
The model makes it 52% FK Partizan, 22% draw, 26% FK Tobol Kostanay — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FK Partizan 2.09, FK Tobol Kostanay 1.46.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Partizan carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.17 for FK Tobol Kostanay. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Partizan W-W; FK Tobol Kostanay D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for FK Partizan and 1.46 for FK Tobol Kostanay. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Partizan rate 0.57 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Tobol Kostanay rate 0.50 and 1.94.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Partizan the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FK Partizan against 1.46 for FK Tobol Kostanay. FK Partizan's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.94 for FK Tobol Kostanay.