Hapoel Petah Tikva
vs
Maccabi Netanya
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Maccabi Netanya
The model makes it 34% Hapoel Petah Tikva, 29% draw, 37% Maccabi Netanya — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.29, Maccabi Netanya 1.41.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Maccabi Netanya are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Netanya at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv18 September 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Jerusalem29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ironi Tiberias22 August 2026
Maccabi Netanya
- L1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Ramat Gan14 September 2026
- D1-1Hapoel Haifa7 September 2026
- W4-1away to Beitar Jerusalem29 August 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin24 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Petah Tikva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Maccabi Netanya
- Matheus Davó4 goals
- O. Bilu1 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.3 for Maccabi Netanya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.41 for Maccabi Netanya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.44 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Netanya rate 0.61 and 1.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Netanya the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva against 1.41 for Maccabi Netanya. Hapoel Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.83 for Maccabi Netanya.