Vasas vs Kisvarda FC NB I prediction & result
Final score: Vasas 1-1 Kisvarda FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Vasas, 25% draw, 21% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vasas at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87M. EngediG
- 4B. PávkovicsD
- 57P. IyinborD
- 17Dániel CsókaD
- 14Á. DoktoricsD
- 15S. HidiM
- 16B. RabM
- 10M. KovácsrétiM
- 88J. UrblíkM
- 77M. TóthM
- 9M. KosztaF
- 36B. BaráthD
- 22Viktor HeiD
- 84Rajmund HorvathF
- 24S. MezeiM
- 18G. PálinkásF
- 29B. PethőF
- 7A. RadóF
- 6D. SztojkaM
- 89Csaba Milán MolnárM
- 23I. PopovichG
- 55K. NagyD
- 42T. LippaiD
- 25B. ŠerbečićD
- 10D. SoltészD
- 80H. MbockM
- 11M. MatanovićM
- 24C. HercM
- 14B. MelnykM
- 21G. SzikszaiM
- 27J. MešanovićF
- 22A. YougaM
- 70L. SzőrM
- 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
- 18K. KörmendiM
- 4M. ChlumeckýD
- 29B. BíróF
- 37Miroslav BabjakD
- 45T. A. BalogunF
- 9Y. OkoronkwoF
Form going into Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Vasas
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Debreceni VSC19 September 2026
- W3-2Nyiregyhaza4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ujpest29 August 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Budapest Honved14 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vasas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas had three goals or more.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vasas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Kisvarda FC | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
- 8 July 2026Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2025Kisvarda FC 0–0 VasasNB II
- 28 July 2024Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCNB II
- 19 May 2023Kisvarda FC 2–1 VasasNB I
- 25 February 2023Vasas 2–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Vasas and Kisvarda FC
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- J. Urblík33
Kisvarda FC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasas and Kisvarda FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasas at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Milan Tóth 61' for Vasas, Bence Bíró 86' for Kisvarda FC. On expected goals it finished 1.58–0.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasas a 68.9% chance to finish in the top four: 72.6% after a win, 66.4% after a draw, 61.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.4%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For Kisvarda FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.3% going in: 43.2% after a win, 50.9% after a draw, 56.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.9%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vasas v Kisvarda FC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Vasas's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Vasas win54%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Kisvarda FC win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.