Vasas
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Vasas 1–0 Kisvarda FC
The model makes it 49% Vasas, 27% draw, 24% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vasas 1.87, Kisvarda FC 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasas at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Vasas
- W4-2away to Debreceni VSC19 September 2026
- W3-2Nyiregyhaza4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ujpest29 August 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Budapest Honved14 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vasas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas had three goals or more.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
- 8 July 2026Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2025Kisvarda FC 0–0 VasasNB II
- 28 July 2024Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCNB II
- 19 May 2023Kisvarda FC 2–1 VasasNB I
- 25 February 2023Vasas 2–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 8 October 2022Kisvarda FC 2–0 VasasNB I
Leading scorers: Vasas and Kisvarda FC
Vasas
- M. Kovácsréti2 goals1 assists
- M. Koszta2 goals
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
- M. Matanović2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasas carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.35 for Kisvarda FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Vasas and 0.95 for Kisvarda FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasas rate 0.83 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kisvarda FC rate 0.47 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasas a 25.5% chance of the title and Kisvarda FC 1.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Vasas against 0.95 for Kisvarda FC. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.35 for Kisvarda FC.