Regular Season - 8 · 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Zlin vs Hradec Králové Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Letna, Zlin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Zlin 1-2 Hradec Králové.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Zlin, 29% draw, 35% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Zlin 1.35, Hradec Králové 1.31.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Zlin vs Hradec Králové

55%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 9%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zlin at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zlin0%Draw4%Hradec Králové96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽David Machalíkassist: Jiří Štefan
8'
🔁Kristers Penkevicsout: Stanislav petruta
10'
45+1'
⚽Tomáš Čvančaraassist: Samuel Dancak
46'
⚽Tom Sloncikassist: Mick Van Buren
David Machalík
63'
Michal Fukala
65'
66'
🔁Mick Van Burenout: Abdullahi Umar
🔁David Machalíkout: Michal Cupák
68'
🔁Jiří Štefanout: Tomáš Poznar
68'
🔁Miloš Kopečnýout: Frank Appiah
68'
Antonin Krapka
69'
71'
Tom Sloncik
79'
🔁Samuel Dancakout: Matej Valenta
80'
🔁Daniel Trubačout: Filip Mielke
🔁Marian Pisojaout: Adam Gazi
80'
89'
🔁Tom Sloncikout: Adam Vlkanova

Match stats — Zlin vs Hradec Králové

44%Possession56%
18Shots10
4On target5
14Corners4

Line-ups

Zlin 4-4-1-1
  • 17S. DostálG
  • 35O. KukučkaD
  • 24J. ČernínD
  • 39A. KřapkaD
  • 22M. FukalaD
  • 23M. KopečnýM
  • 5K. PenkevicsM
  • 8D. MachalíkM
  • 82M. PišojaM
  • 3Jiří ŠtefanM
  • 9D. ŠmigaF
Substitutes
  • 4T. UlbrichM
  • 31L. BartošákD
  • 26M. CupákM
  • 11A. GažiM
  • 21D. GrygeraD
  • 14S. KanuF
  • 34M. KnoblochG
  • 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
  • 10S. PetrutaM
Coach: P. Hoftych
Hradec Králové 5-4-1
  • 12A. ZadražilG
  • 2D. LudvíčekD
  • 7J. UhrinčaťD
  • 5F. ČihákD
  • 25F. ČechD
  • 27D. TrubačD
  • 10M. van BurenM
  • 16V. DaridaM
  • 11S. DancákM
  • 19T. SlončíkM
  • 70T. ČvančaraF
Substitutes
  • 58A. VlkanovaM
  • 1P. VízekG
  • 9M. ValentaM
  • 20M. VágnerG
  • 24A. UmarF
  • 6Elione NetoM
  • 3F. MielkeD
  • 30J. ChvátalM
  • 33Rodrigo AbajasD
Coach: D. Horejs

Form going into Zlin vs Hradec Králové

Zlin

  • L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
  • L0-1Slovan Liberec22 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Plzen15 August 2026

Hradec Králové

  • D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
  • W2-1Sparta Praha6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Zbrojovka Brno2 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovan Liberec30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Zlin8008718-110
6Hradec Králové842287+114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zlin vs Hradec Králové

  • 13 September 2026Zlin 1–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 21 February 2026Hradec Králové 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 20 September 2025Zlin 1–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 16 December 2023Zlin 4–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 20 August 2023Hradec Králové 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 11 March 2023Zlin 2–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Zlin and Hradec Králové

Zlin

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Hradec Králové

  • T. Slončík3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.35 goals for Zlin and 1.31 for Hradec Králové; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: David Machalík 8' (Zlin), Tomáš Čvančara 45' (Hradec Králové), Tom Sloncik 46' (Hradec Králové).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Zlin the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Zlin against 1.31 for Hradec Králové. Zlin's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.2 for Hradec Králové.