FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
SV Wehen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 SV Wehen
The model makes it 44% FC Ingolstadt 04, 30% draw, 26% SV Wehen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.49, SV Wehen 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are 14th on 8 points from 7 games; SV Wehen are 19th on 5 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
- SV Wehen have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to MSV Duisburg.
- Last 6 meetings: SV Wehen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended SV Wehen 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Ingolstadt 04 at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
FC Ingolstadt 04
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
- L0-3Alemannia Aachen4 September 2026
- W2-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach29 August 2026
SV Wehen
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
- L0-1Waldhof Mannheim13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Hansa Rostock5 September 2026
- D0-0Rot-Weiß Essen29 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Wehen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Wehen had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 19 | SV Wehen | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
- 28 February 2026SV Wehen 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 20 September 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 10 May 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 2–3 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 14 December 2024SV Wehen 2–5 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 4 March 2023SV Wehen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 27 August 2022FC Ingolstadt 04 2–3 SV Wehen3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.12 for SV Wehen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 0.90 for SV Wehen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.50 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Wehen rate 0.42 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 0.4% chance of the title and SV Wehen 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 0.90 for SV Wehen. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.83 for SV Wehen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · SV Wehen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 7, SV Wehen 7.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); SV Wehen have let in 5 there.
SV Wehen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Ingolstadt 04
- at Waldhof Mannheim13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs MSV Duisburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Havelse31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
SV Wehen
- vs Alemannia Aachen13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 30%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Verl31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 23%
- vs Havelse7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.