SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
Waldhof Mannheim
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–0 Waldhof Mannheim
The model makes it 38% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 31% draw, 31% Waldhof Mannheim — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.24, Waldhof Mannheim 1.04.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 13th on 8 points from 7 games; Waldhof Mannheim are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Saarbrücken.
- Waldhof Mannheim have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Preußen Münster.
- Last 2 meetings: Waldhof Mannheim 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2020, ended Waldhof Mannheim 3–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
- D1-1Verl15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse12 September 2026
- W1-0Hoffenheim II6 September 2026
- L0-2FC Ingolstadt 0429 August 2026
Waldhof Mannheim
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Wehen13 September 2026
- L0-1Verl5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Havelse30 August 2026
What these results say
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waldhof Mannheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
- 20 June 2020Waldhof Mannheim 3–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 9 November 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–3 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Waldhof Mannheim
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Waldhof Mannheim
- V. Thill1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.17 for Waldhof Mannheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.04 for Waldhof Mannheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach rate 0.38 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waldhof Mannheim rate 0.51 and 2.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Waldhof Mannheim, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 0.1% chance of the title and Waldhof Mannheim 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach against 1.04 for Waldhof Mannheim. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2 for Waldhof Mannheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home · Waldhof Mannheim away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7, Waldhof Mannheim 7.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 2 there.
Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- at FC Viktoria Köln13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Preußen Münster17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- at SV Wehen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- at Hansa Rostock7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
Waldhof Mannheim
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0413 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Würzburger Kickers17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs Hoffenheim II24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at FC Saarbrücken31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Fortuna Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.