Preußen Münster
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Preußen Münster 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
The model makes it 38% Preußen Münster, 30% draw, 32% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Preußen Münster 1.42, Rot-Weiß Essen 1.21.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Preußen Münster are 8th on 11 points from 7 games; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Preußen Münster have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Waldhof Mannheim.
- Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Hansa Rostock.
- Last 6 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 January 2024, ended Preussen Munster 2–1 Rot-weiss Essen.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Preußen Münster at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Preußen Münster
- L0-2away to Waldhof Mannheim20 September 2026
- D3-3FC Saarbrücken16 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stuttgart II13 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse5 September 2026
- L1-4away to FC Viktoria Köln30 August 2026
Rot-Weiß Essen
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Viktoria Köln5 September 2026
- D0-0away to SV Wehen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Preußen Münster had three goals or more.
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- 28 January 2024Preussen Munster 2–1 Rot-weiss Essen3. Liga
- 27 August 2023Rot-weiss Essen 1–0 Preussen Munster3. Liga
- 20 February 2022Rot-weiss Essen 1–1 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 14 September 2021Preussen Munster 2–3 Rot-weiss EssenRegionalliga - West
- 13 March 2021Preussen Munster 1–0 Rot-weiss EssenRegionalliga - West
- 17 October 2020Rot-weiss Essen 1–0 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Preußen Münster carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.41 for Rot-Weiß Essen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Preußen Münster and 1.21 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preußen Münster rate 0.59 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rot-Weiß Essen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preußen Münster a 5.5% chance of the title and Rot-Weiß Essen 13.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preußen Münster the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Preußen Münster against 1.21 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Preußen Münster's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.48 for Rot-Weiß Essen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preußen Münster at home · Rot-Weiß Essen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Preußen Münster 7, Rot-Weiß Essen 7.
Preußen Münster score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Preußen Münster
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 40%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs Fortuna Köln24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Alemannia Aachen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 28%
- vs MSV Duisburg7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
Rot-Weiß Essen
- vs Fortuna Köln13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 47%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0417 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 51%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.