Würzburger Kickers
vs
Hansa Rostock
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Würzburger Kickers 1–2 Hansa Rostock
The model makes it 36% Würzburger Kickers, 27% draw, 37% Hansa Rostock — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Würzburger Kickers 1.71, Hansa Rostock 1.79.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Würzburger Kickers and Hansa Rostock are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Würzburger Kickers are 16th on 7 points from 7 games; Hansa Rostock are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Würzburger Kickers have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Verl.
- Hansa Rostock have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2020, ended FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–1 Hansa Rostock.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hansa Rostock at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
Würzburger Kickers
- L1-2away to Verl18 September 2026
- W1-0Alemannia Aachen15 September 2026
- L2-6away to Rot-Weiß Essen12 September 2026
- L1-2Stuttgart II6 September 2026
- L0-3away to MSV Duisburg29 August 2026
Hansa Rostock
- D1-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen20 September 2026
- W3-2Stuttgart II16 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Viktoria Köln11 September 2026
- D1-1SV Wehen5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken30 August 2026
What these results say
- Würzburger Kickers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hansa Rostock conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hansa Rostock scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Hansa Rostock.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
- 27 June 2020FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–1 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 30 November 2019Hansa Rostock 1–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 17 February 2019FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–2 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 25 August 2018Hansa Rostock 0–4 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 10 February 2018Hansa Rostock 3–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 20 August 2017FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–3 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
The two sides
Würzburger Kickers carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.33 for Hansa Rostock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Würzburger Kickers and 1.79 for Hansa Rostock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Würzburger Kickers rate 0.54 in attack and 2.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hansa Rostock rate 0.68 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Würzburger Kickers a 0.1% chance of the title and Hansa Rostock 5.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hansa Rostock the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers against 1.79 for Hansa Rostock. Würzburger Kickers's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.95 for Hansa Rostock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Würzburger Kickers at home · Hansa Rostock away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Würzburger Kickers 7, Hansa Rostock 7.
Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Würzburger Kickers have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Würzburger Kickers
- at Havelse13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at SV Meppen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Fortuna Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs Hoffenheim II7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
Hansa Rostock
- vs SV Meppen13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 53%
- at Alemannia Aachen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 40%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.