Waldhof Mannheim
vs
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Waldhof Mannheim 1–0 FC Ingolstadt 04
The model makes it 39% Waldhof Mannheim, 29% draw, 32% FC Ingolstadt 04 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.48, FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Waldhof Mannheim are 9th on 10 points from 7 games; FC Ingolstadt 04 are 14th on 8 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Waldhof Mannheim have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Preußen Münster.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended FC Ingolstadt 04 5–1 Waldhof Mannheim.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waldhof Mannheim at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Wehen13 September 2026
- L0-1Verl5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Havelse30 August 2026
FC Ingolstadt 04
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
- L0-3Alemannia Aachen4 September 2026
- W2-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach29 August 2026
What these results say
- Waldhof Mannheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
- 16 May 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 5–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 20 December 2025Waldhof Mannheim 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 19 January 2025Waldhof Mannheim 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 4 August 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 5 May 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 2 December 2023Waldhof Mannheim 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
- V. Thill1 goal
FC Ingolstadt 04
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waldhof Mannheim carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.22 for FC Ingolstadt 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.20 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waldhof Mannheim rate 0.51 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.50 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waldhof Mannheim a 0.8% chance of the title and FC Ingolstadt 04 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waldhof Mannheim the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim against 1.20 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Waldhof Mannheim's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.78 for FC Ingolstadt 04.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waldhof Mannheim at home · FC Ingolstadt 04 away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Waldhof Mannheim 7, FC Ingolstadt 04 7.
Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 2 there.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Waldhof Mannheim
- at Würzburger Kickers17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs Hoffenheim II24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at FC Saarbrücken31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Fortuna Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
FC Ingolstadt 04
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs MSV Duisburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Havelse31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.