Fortuna Düsseldorf
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 Verl
The model makes it 42% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 29% draw, 29% Verl — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.59, Verl 1.09.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortuna Düsseldorf are 10th on 10 points from 7 games; Verl are 11th on 10 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Alemannia Aachen.
- Verl are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Würzburger Kickers.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln6 September 2026
- W1-0Stuttgart II28 August 2026
Verl
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Waldhof Mannheim5 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Köln29 August 2026
What these results say
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Verl.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.33 for Verl. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.09 for Verl. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Düsseldorf rate 0.58 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Verl rate 0.59 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 7.3% chance of the title and Verl 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.09 for Verl. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.68 for Verl.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Düsseldorf 7, Verl 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- at Preußen Münster13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs FC Saarbrücken17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 45%
- at Hansa Rostock24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs SV Meppen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 53%
- at FC Ingolstadt 047 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Verl
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 47%
- at Hoffenheim II17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 34%
- at FC Viktoria Köln24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs SV Wehen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at Stuttgart II7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.