Regular Season - 9 · 13 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen 3. Liga prediction

BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden

Our model says: SV Wehen 0–1 Alemannia Aachen

The model makes it 30% SV Wehen, 30% draw, 40% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: SV Wehen 1.06, Alemannia Aachen 1.39.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • SV Wehen are 19th on 5 points from 7 games; Alemannia Aachen are 7th on 11 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
  • SV Wehen have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to MSV Duisburg.
  • Alemannia Aachen have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Alemannia Aachen 3–0 SV Wehen.

Live win probability

From kick-off
SV Wehen30%3.33
Draw30%3.33
Alemannia Aachen40%2.50

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SV Wehen win Draw Alemannia Aachen win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 1–09%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read SV Wehen first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Alemannia Aachen at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen

SV Wehen

  • L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
  • L0-1Waldhof Mannheim13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Hansa Rostock5 September 2026
  • D0-0Rot-Weiß Essen29 August 2026

Alemannia Aachen

  • W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
  • D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg12 September 2026
  • W3-0away to FC Ingolstadt 044 September 2026
  • L0-3SV Meppen29 August 2026

What these results say

  • SV Wehen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for SV Wehen had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19SV Wehen7124513-85
7Alemannia Aachen7322118+311

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen

  • 5 April 2026Alemannia Aachen 3–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 24 October 2025SV Wehen 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 17 May 2025SV Wehen 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 21 December 2024Alemannia Aachen 0–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 19 April 2013SV Wehen 3–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 27 October 2012Alemannia Aachen 1–1 SV Wehen3. Liga

The two sides

SV Wehen carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.4 for Alemannia Aachen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for SV Wehen and 1.39 for Alemannia Aachen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

SV Wehen rate 0.42 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alemannia Aachen rate 0.63 and 1.55.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Wehen a 0% chance of the title and Alemannia Aachen 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Alemannia Aachen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SV Wehen against 1.39 for Alemannia Aachen. SV Wehen's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.55 for Alemannia Aachen.

Season stats

SV WehenAlemannia Aachen
7Matches7
1W 2D 4LRecord3W 2D 2L
5 0.7 a gameGoals scored11 1.6 a game
13 1.9 a gameGoals conceded8 1.1 a game
2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7
3 of 7Failed to score2 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
22 3.1 a gameYellow cards20 2.9 a game
2Red cards2
4-4-2 3×Usual shape3-4-2-1 3×

SV Wehen at home · Alemannia Aachen away

4Played3
0W 1D 3LRecord1W 1D 1L
2–8Goals for – against4–2
1 of 4Clean sheets1 of 3

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: SV Wehen 7, Alemannia Aachen 7.

SV Wehen scored 103001
Alemannia Aachen conceded 213200

SV Wehen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 3 there.

Alemannia Aachen scored 610202
SV Wehen conceded 052204

Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); SV Wehen have let in 0 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

SV Wehen

Alemannia Aachen

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.