Fortuna Köln
vs
FC Saarbrücken
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Köln 1–0 FC Saarbrücken
The model makes it 39% Fortuna Köln, 30% draw, 31% FC Saarbrücken — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortuna Köln 1.42, FC Saarbrücken 1.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortuna Köln are 12th on 9 points from 7 games; FC Saarbrücken are 4th on 13 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Köln have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Havelse.
- FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Köln at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
Fortuna Köln
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
- D0-0Fortuna Düsseldorf6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Verl29 August 2026
FC Saarbrücken
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
- L0-1FC Ingolstadt 0412 September 2026
- W6-1away to SV Meppen5 September 2026
- L2-4Hansa Rostock30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- 7 January 2023FC Saarbrücken 2–1 Fortuna KolnFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Köln carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.28 for FC Saarbrücken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Fortuna Köln and 1.15 for FC Saarbrücken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Köln rate 0.47 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Saarbrücken rate 0.59 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Saarbrücken, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Köln a 0.7% chance of the title and FC Saarbrücken 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Köln the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fortuna Köln against 1.15 for FC Saarbrücken. Fortuna Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.86 for FC Saarbrücken.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Köln at home · FC Saarbrücken away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Köln 7, FC Saarbrücken 7.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 0 there.
FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Fortuna Köln have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Köln
- at Rot-Weiß Essen13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Stuttgart II17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 45%
- at Preußen Münster24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
FC Saarbrücken
- vs MSV Duisburg13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at Havelse24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 47%
- at FC Viktoria Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.