SSV Jahn Regensburg
vs
Havelse
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 Havelse
The model makes it 50% SSV Jahn Regensburg, 25% draw, 25% Havelse — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.32, Havelse 1.29.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are 18th on 5 points from 7 games; Havelse are bottom on 4 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg have not won in their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Stuttgart II.
- Havelse are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Fortuna Köln.
- Last 2 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–2 Havelse.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alemannia Aachen12 September 2026
- L1-2MSV Duisburg5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Hoffenheim II29 August 2026
Havelse
- L1-3Fortuna Köln25 September 2026
- L1-2away to MSV Duisburg15 September 2026
- D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preußen Münster5 September 2026
- W3-2Waldhof Mannheim30 August 2026
What these results say
- SSV Jahn Regensburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Havelse scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Havelse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Havelse had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
- 21 March 2026SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–2 Havelse3. Liga
- 19 October 2025Havelse 1–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.06 for Havelse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.29 for Havelse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.56 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Havelse rate 0.52 and 2.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 0.4% chance of the title and Havelse 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.29 for Havelse. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.55 for Havelse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SSV Jahn Regensburg at home · Havelse away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SSV Jahn Regensburg 7, Havelse 7.
SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Havelse have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- at Verl13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs SV Wehen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 23%
- vs Hansa Rostock31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at SV Meppen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Havelse
- vs Würzburger Kickers13 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at SV Meppen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs FC Saarbrücken24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0431 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- at SV Wehen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.