Dila
vs
Dinamo Batumi
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dila 2-2 Dinamo Batumi.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dila, 27% draw, 27% Dinamo Batumi — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dila 1.89, Dinamo Batumi 1.15.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dila vs Dinamo Batumi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dila vs Dinamo Batumi
Dila
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026
- D2-2Torpedo Kutaisi22 August 2026
Dinamo Batumi
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rustavi4 September 2026
- W3-0Spaeri30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dila | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 37 |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dila carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.36 for Dinamo Batumi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Dila and 1.15 for Dinamo Batumi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dila rate 0.88 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Batumi rate 0.47 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Batumi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dila a 1.9% chance of the title and Dinamo Batumi 22.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dila the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Dila against 1.15 for Dinamo Batumi. Dila's attack/defence rating is 0.88/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.32 for Dinamo Batumi.