Regular Season - 24 · 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk Premier League prediction

Stadion Spartak, Mogilev

Our model says: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Dinamo Minsk

The model makes it 22% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 28% draw, 50% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).

Expected goals: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0.83, Dinamo Minsk 1.82.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High.

Published

Key facts

  • FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th on 16 points from 23 games; Dinamo Minsk are 3rd on 43 points from 21 games — Premier League.
  • FC Dnepr Mogilev have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Dinamo Brest.
  • Dinamo Minsk have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Bate Borisov.
  • Last 5 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Dinamo Minsk 3–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev.

Live win probability

From kick-off
FC Dnepr Mogilev22%4.55
Draw28%3.57
Dinamo Minsk50%2.00

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

48%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Dnepr Mogilev win Draw Dinamo Minsk win
  1. 0–112%
  2. 0–212%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–37%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read FC Dnepr Mogilev first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Minsk at 50% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

FC Dnepr Mogilev

  • L2-4away to Dinamo Brest20 September 2026
  • D1-1ML Vitebsk13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Baranovichi6 September 2026
  • D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Torpedo Zhodino24 August 2026

Dinamo Minsk

  • W2-0Bate Borisov19 September 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to ML Vitebsk6 September 2026
  • W5-1Naftan2 September 2026
  • L0-1Baranovichi29 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dnepr Mogilev did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Minsk had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FC Dnepr Mogilev23210112036-1616
3Dinamo Minsk2113443716+2143

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

  • 24 May 2026Dinamo Minsk 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 16 September 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 27 April 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 25 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 September 2022Dinamo Minsk 4–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League

A clear gap in the ratings

FC Dnepr Mogilev carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.5 for Dinamo Minsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.83 goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.82 for Dinamo Minsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

FC Dnepr Mogilev rate 0.39 in attack and 2.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Minsk rate 0.65 and 1.31.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dnepr Mogilev a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Minsk 38.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev against 1.82 for Dinamo Minsk. FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.31 for Dinamo Minsk.

Season stats

FC Dnepr MogilevDinamo Minsk
23Matches21
2W 10D 11LRecord13W 4D 4L
20 0.9 a gameGoals scored37 1.8 a game
36 1.6 a gameGoals conceded16 0.8 a game
5 of 23Clean sheets8 of 21
9 of 23Failed to score5 of 21
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
41 1.8 a gameYellow cards31 1.5 a game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home · Dinamo Minsk away

11Played10
1W 7D 3LRecord7W 2D 1L
11–12Goals for – against15–6
3 of 11Clean sheets5 of 10

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: FC Dnepr Mogilev 23, Dinamo Minsk 21.

FC Dnepr Mogilev scored 325533
Dinamo Minsk conceded 402235
Dinamo Minsk scored 7916410
FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded 3444119

Dinamo Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Dinamo Minsk

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.