FC Dnepr Mogilev
vs
Bate Borisov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
The model makes it 37% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 31% draw, 32% Bate Borisov — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.22, Bate Borisov 1.07.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th on 16 points from 23 games; Bate Borisov are 14th on 18 points from 22 games — Premier League.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Dinamo Brest.
- Bate Borisov are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dinamo Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Dnepr Mogilev 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dnepr Mogilev at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- L2-4away to Dinamo Brest20 September 2026
- D1-1ML Vitebsk13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Baranovichi6 September 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Torpedo Zhodino24 August 2026
Bate Borisov
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 September 2026
- D2-2Naftan13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Brest7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.3 September 2026
- W2-1FC Minsk30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Dnepr Mogilev did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov
- 31 May 2026Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 1 September 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 8 June 2024Bate Borisov 2–4 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 25 February 2023Bate Borisov 1–3 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
- 21 August 2022Bate Borisov 2–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dnepr Mogilev carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.05 for Bate Borisov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.07 for Bate Borisov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dnepr Mogilev rate 0.39 in attack and 2.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bate Borisov rate 0.38 and 1.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bate Borisov, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dnepr Mogilev the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev against 1.07 for Bate Borisov. FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.93 for Bate Borisov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home · Bate Borisov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Dnepr Mogilev 23, Bate Borisov 22.
Bate Borisov score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs FC Gomel31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Neman7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs FC Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Bate Borisov
- vs Belshina24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.