Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
vs
Dinamo Brest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Dinamo Brest
The model makes it 31% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, 27% draw, 42% Dinamo Brest — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.41, Dinamo Brest 1.87.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 23 points from 23 games; Dinamo Brest are 4th on 40 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to ML Vitebsk.
- Dinamo Brest are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Brest 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Dinamo Brest 3–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Brest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Brest at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Brest
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- L1-5away to ML Vitebsk18 September 2026
- D0-0Baranovichi12 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.7 September 2026
- L2-4Torpedo Zhodino30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belshina22 August 2026
Dinamo Brest
- W4-2FC Dnepr Mogilev20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 September 2026
- W1-0Bate Borisov7 September 2026
- L1-3ML Vitebsk29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baranovichi23 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 23 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Brest
- 23 May 2026Dinamo Brest 3–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 2 August 2025Dinamo Brest 1–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 16 March 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 7 February 2025Dinamo Brest 3–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024Dinamo Brest 2–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 28 July 2024Dinamo Brest 4–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskCoppa
The two sides
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.35 for Dinamo Brest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and 1.87 for Dinamo Brest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk rate 0.50 in attack and 2.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Brest rate 0.63 and 1.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arsenal Dzerzhinsk a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Brest 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Brest the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk against 1.87 for Dinamo Brest. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.73 for Dinamo Brest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at home · Dinamo Brest away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 23, Dinamo Brest 23.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Brest have let in 5 there.
Dinamo Brest score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- at Dinamo Minsk17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- vs FC Dnepr Mogilev24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Bate Borisov31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at FC Gomel7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Neman21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Dinamo Brest
- vs FC Gomel17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Neman24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs FC Vitebsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at FC Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Naftan21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.