FC Gomel
vs
ML Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Gomel 1–0 ML Vitebsk
The model makes it 36% FC Gomel, 30% draw, 34% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Gomel 1.32, ML Vitebsk 1.22.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Gomel and ML Vitebsk are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- FC Gomel are 5th on 39 points from 23 games; ML Vitebsk are 2nd on 44 points from 21 games — Premier League.
- FC Gomel have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Baranovichi.
- ML Vitebsk are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
- Last 4 meetings: ML Vitebsk 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended ML Vitebsk 0–0 FC Gomel.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Gomel at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
FC Gomel
- W2-0away to Baranovichi20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Torpedo Zhodino5 September 2026
- W1-0Belshina28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Mozyr22 August 2026
ML Vitebsk
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Dinamo Brest29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Gomel scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
- 22 May 2026ML Vitebsk 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 23 November 2025ML Vitebsk 5–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 28 June 2025FC Gomel 0–2 ML VitebskPremier League
- 15 February 2025FC Gomel 2–3 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Gomel carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.47 for ML Vitebsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for FC Gomel and 1.22 for ML Vitebsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Gomel rate 0.55 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ML Vitebsk rate 0.69 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ML Vitebsk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Gomel a 0.1% chance of the title and ML Vitebsk 39.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Gomel the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Gomel against 1.22 for ML Vitebsk. FC Gomel's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.47 for ML Vitebsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Gomel at home · ML Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Gomel 23, ML Vitebsk 21.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); FC Gomel have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Gomel
- at Dinamo Brest17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Dinamo Minsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- vs Bate Borisov21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
ML Vitebsk
- vs Neman17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at FC Vitebsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs FC Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.