FC Cincinnati
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 54% FC Cincinnati, 21% draw, 25% New York City FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.76 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.23, New York City FC 1.49.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey11 goals2 assists
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau13 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.55 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Cincinnati D-W-W-L-W; New York City FC D-L-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.49 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.92 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.70 and 1.28.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.49 for New York City FC. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.28 for New York City FC.