Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-2 Inter Miami.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Philadelphia Union, 18% draw, 24% Inter Miami — fair odds of 1.72, 5.56 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Philadelphia Union at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Andre BlakeG
- 39Frankie WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26Nathan HarrielD
- 27Kai WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21Danley Jean JacquesM
- 8Jesus BuenoM
- 19Indiana VassilevM
- 9Bruno DamianiF
- 10Milan IloskiF
- 33Quinn SullivanM
- 11Alejandro BedoyaM
- 23Ezekiel AlladohF
- 76Andrew RickG
- 5Japhet Sery LarsenD
- 28Agustin AnelloF
- 16Ben BenderM
- 14Jeremy RafanelloM
- 51Malik JakupovicF
- 97Dayne St. ClairG
- 17Ian FrayD
- 2Gonzalo LujánD
- 37Maximiliano FalcónD
- 3Sergio ReguilónD
- 42Yannick BrightM
- 5CasemiroM
- 8Telasco SegoviaM
- 10Lionel MessiF
- 9Luis SuárezF
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 32Noah AllenD
- 22David AyalaM
- 41David RuízM
- 34Rocco Ríos NovoG
- 15Fricio CaicedoD
- 4Facundo MuraD
- 88Alexander ShawM
- 59Preston PlambeckM
- 54Lovens DelinoisF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
- W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026
Inter Miami
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Nashville SC16 August 2026
- D2-2Columbus Crew1 August 2026
- W1-0away to CF Montreal25 July 2026
- W3-2Chicago Fire22 July 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 4 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
- 24 May 2026Inter Miami 6–4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Philadelphia Union 3–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 29 March 2025Inter Miami 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024Inter Miami 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Philadelphia Union at 58% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: I. Vassilev 11' for Philadelphia Union, D. Pinter 21' for Inter Miami, L. Messi 26' for Inter Miami, N. Pierre 58' for Philadelphia Union. Sent off: C. Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) 90+13', Y. Bright (Inter Miami) 90+13'. On expected goals it finished 2.59–1.48.