Fenerbahçe
vs
Lyon
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 53% Fenerbahçe, 22% draw, 25% Lyon — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.01, Lyon 1.34.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.92 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Fenerbahçe W-D-W-W; Lyon L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.34 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.11 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.10 and 0.96.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.34 for Lyon. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.96 for Lyon.