18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Lyon UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Fenerbahçe, 20% draw, 23% Lyon — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League Play-offs tie. Second leg: Lyon v Fenerbahçe, 26 Aug →

Fenerbahçe went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fenerbahçe7%Draw89%Lyon4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
Abner Vinícius
40'
⚽L. Opendaassist: C. Tolisso
⚽M. Greenwoodassist: K. Akturkoglu
47'
🔁K. Akturkogluout: D. Nene
73'
🔁Taliscaout: M. Asensio
73'
75'
🔁R. Kluivertout: C. Mata
75'
🔁E. Nuamahout: K. Boudache
N'Golo Kanté
81'
🔁V. Muriqiout: R. Lukaku
82'
Milan Škriniar
84'
86'
🔁T. Mortonout: M. Bidstrup
90+1'
🔁M. Fofanaout: M. Ouedraogo

Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Lyon

52%Possession48%
12Shots12
5On target5
3Corners0

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 94TaliscaM
  • 7K. AkturkogluM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 75K. SapazG
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 70O. AydinF
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 45D. NeneF
Coach: Ismail Kartal
Lyon 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 16Abner ViniciusD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 7E. NuamahM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 11M. FofanaM
  • 17L. OpendaF
Substitutes
  • 25J. BenguiG
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 76M. OuedraogoD
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Lyon

Fenerbahçe

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
  • W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
  • W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026

Lyon

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Lyon

  • 23 January 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 LyonUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Lyon

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Lyon

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe and Lyon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 57% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: L. Openda 40' for Lyon, M. Greenwood 47' for Fenerbahçe.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.