Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 1-2 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Orlando City SC, 27% draw, 30% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Orlando City SC at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71Maxime CrépeauG
- 24Griffin DorseyD
- 4David BrekaloD
- 6Robin JanssonD
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 16Wilder CartagenaM
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 77Iván AnguloM
- 7Antoine GriezmannM
- 14Tyrese SpicerM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 19Zakaria TaifiM
- 87Marco PašalićF
- 11Tiago SouzaF
- 9Daryl DikeF
- 20Eduard AtuestaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 57Iago SilvaD
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 1Chris BradyG
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 29David PorebaM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 19Jonathan BambaF
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 17Robin LodM
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieM
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 44Josh CohenG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 47Sam WilliamsM
- 20Jason ShokalookF
Form going into Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026
- L2-3away to New York Red Bulls1 August 2026
- W1-0Nashville SC25 July 2026
- W4-0away to San Jose Earthquakes23 July 2026
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 46 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
- 23 October 2025Chicago Fire 3–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Orlando City SC 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2024Orlando City SC 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chicago Fire won 2–1 at Orlando City SC. The model had leaned towards a win for Orlando City SC at 43% and given a win for Chicago Fire 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: P. Dithejane 4' for Chicago Fire, D. Brekalo 52' for Orlando City SC, R. Lewandowski (penalty) 69' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 1.77–1.30.