Orlando City SC
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 53% Orlando City SC, 24% draw, 23% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.87, Chicago Fire 1.19.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda11 goals
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.58 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Orlando City SC D-L-W-W-L; Chicago Fire W-W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.19 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.84 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.68 and 1.18.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.19 for Chicago Fire. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.18 for Chicago Fire.