New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% New York Red Bulls, 24% draw, 23% Nashville SC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York Red Bulls at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 2Justin CheD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 16Julian HallF
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 91Mijahir JimenezF
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 77John McCarthyG
- 5Omar ValenciaD
- 39Nehuen BenedettiM
- 17Cameron HarperF
- 13Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingF
- 99Brian SchwakeG
- 27Reed Baker-WhitingD
- 5Jack MaherD
- 3Maxwell WoledziD
- 2Daniel LovitzD
- 16Matthew CorcoranM
- 20Edvard TagsethM
- 14Shakur MohammedM
- 10Hany MukhtarM
- 11Elias SaadM
- 9Sam SurridgeF
- 31Andy NajarD
- 7Cristian EspinozaF
- 37Ahmed QasemF
- 8Patrick YazbekM
- 22Josh BauerD
- 1Joe WillisG
- 4Jeisson PalaciosD
- 19Alex MuylM
- 6Bryan AcostaM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
Nashville SC
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
- D2-2away to DC United1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal23 July 2026
- W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 77 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
- 15 May 2025Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2024Nashville SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023Nashville SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge211
- H. Mukhtar167
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nashville SC won 1–0 at New York Red Bulls. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 53% and given a win for Nashville SC 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Woledzi 90+2' for Nashville SC. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.34.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.