Deportivo Garcilaso
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos
The model makes it 55% Deportivo Garcilaso, 25% draw, 20% Comerciantes Unidos — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.88, Comerciantes Unidos 0.91.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Deportivo Garcilaso: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Deportivo Garcilaso's rating is built from 64 Primera División (Peru) matches and Comerciantes Unidos's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th on 48 points from 29 games; Comerciantes Unidos are 14th on 31 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Deportivo Garcilaso have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FBC Melgar.
- Comerciantes Unidos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Sporting Cristal.
- Last 5 meetings: Comerciantes Unidos 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Garcilaso.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Garcilaso at 55% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División
- L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026
- L0-1Sport Huancayo10 October 2026
- W4-0Universitario19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys13 September 2026
- W4-2Atletico Grau6 September 2026
Comerciantes Unidos
Primera División
- L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026
- D1-1Juan Pablo II College10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Alianza Atletico18 September 2026
- L0-1Sport Huancayo12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario6 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Garcilaso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 48 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
- 25 May 2026Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 27 July 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 16 February 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 25 August 2024Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 28 March 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–2 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva113
- C. Olivares72
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen102
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Garcilaso carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.27 for Comerciantes Unidos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.91 for Comerciantes Unidos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Garcilaso rate 0.64 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Comerciantes Unidos rate 0.57 and 1.81.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso against 0.91 for Comerciantes Unidos. Deportivo Garcilaso's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.81 for Comerciantes Unidos.
How the model reaches 55% for Deportivo Garcilaso to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Deportivo Garcilaso to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Deportivo Garcilaso's ratings take away 18 points and Comerciantes Unidos's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Deportivo Garcilaso's ratings26%−18
- Comerciantes Unidos's ratings55%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Garcilaso at home · Comerciantes Unidos away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportivo Garcilaso 29, Comerciantes Unidos 29.
Deportivo Garcilaso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Comerciantes Unidos have let in 4 there.
Comerciantes Unidos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Deportivo Garcilaso have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Deportivo Garcilaso
- at Juan Pablo II College14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
Comerciantes Unidos
- vs Sport Boys14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.