FBC Melgar
vs
Juan Pablo II College
Primera División prediction
Our model says: FBC Melgar 2–1 Juan Pablo II College
The model makes it 57% FBC Melgar, 23% draw, 20% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FBC Melgar 2.19, Juan Pablo II College 1.10.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to FBC Melgar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FBC Melgar's rating is built from 65 Primera División (Peru) matches and Juan Pablo II College's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FBC Melgar are 2nd on 53 points from 30 games; Juan Pablo II College are 12th on 38 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to UTC Cajamarca.
- Juan Pablo II College are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Sport Boys.
- Last 3 meetings: all 3 drawn; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Juan Pablo II College 1–1 FBC Melgar.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FBC Melgar at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College
FBC Melgar
Primera División
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
- W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
Juan Pablo II College
Primera División
- W2-0Sport Boys17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Comerciantes Unidos10 October 2026
- W4-0UCV Moquegua20 September 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca11 September 2026
- D1-1Alianza Lima6 September 2026
What these results say
- FBC Melgar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 34 | +19 | 53 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College
- 22 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 5 August 2025FBC Melgar 1–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 2 July 2025Juan Pablo II College 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta156
- J. Vidales131
Juan Pablo II College
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FBC Melgar carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.34 for Juan Pablo II College. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for FBC Melgar and 1.10 for Juan Pablo II College. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FBC Melgar rate 0.74 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juan Pablo II College rate 0.65 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FBC Melgar a 0.1% chance of the title and Juan Pablo II College 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for FBC Melgar against 1.10 for Juan Pablo II College. FBC Melgar's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.82 for Juan Pablo II College.
How the model reaches 57% for FBC Melgar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FBC Melgar to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FBC Melgar's ratings take away 16 points and Juan Pablo II College's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FBC Melgar's ratings28%−16
- Juan Pablo II College's ratings57%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FBC Melgar at home · Juan Pablo II College away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: FBC Melgar 30, Juan Pablo II College 29.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Juan Pablo II College have let in 4 there.
Juan Pablo II College score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
FBC Melgar
- at Alianza Atletico14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
Juan Pablo II College
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.