Cienciano
vs
Sport Huancayo
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cienciano 2–1 Sport Huancayo
The model makes it 46% Cienciano, 26% draw, 28% Sport Huancayo — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cienciano 1.80, Sport Huancayo 1.27.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cienciano's rating is built from 64 Primera División (Peru) matches and Sport Huancayo's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cienciano are 5th on 47 points from 29 games; Sport Huancayo are 10th on 41 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cienciano are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to UTC Cajamarca.
- Sport Huancayo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cusco.
- Last 6 meetings: Cienciano 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Sport Huancayo 2–2 Cienciano.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cienciano at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo
Cienciano
Primera División
- W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026
- W2-0away to UCV Moquegua8 October 2026
- D1-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas30 September 2026
- L1-2away to ADT23 September 2026
- W5-2away to FC Cajamarca4 September 2026
Sport Huancayo
Primera División
- W2-1Cusco16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo Garcilaso10 October 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Comerciantes Unidos12 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Boys5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cienciano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Huancayo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Huancayo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cienciano | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 47 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo
- 24 May 2026Sport Huancayo 2–2 CiencianoPrimera División
- 21 September 2025Sport Huancayo 5–2 CiencianoPrimera División
- 29 April 2025Cienciano 2–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 18 September 2024Cienciano 3–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 12 April 2024Sport Huancayo 1–2 CiencianoPrimera División
- 22 July 2023Cienciano 1–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cienciano and Sport Huancayo
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés154
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera81
Sport Huancayo
GoalsAssists
- Javier Andrés Sanguinetti81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cienciano carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.35 for Sport Huancayo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Cienciano and 1.27 for Sport Huancayo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cienciano rate 0.64 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Huancayo rate 0.63 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cienciano the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cienciano against 1.27 for Sport Huancayo. Cienciano's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.73 for Sport Huancayo.
How the model reaches 46% for Cienciano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cienciano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Cienciano's ratings take away 23 points and Sport Huancayo's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Cienciano's ratings21%−23
- Sport Huancayo's ratings46%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cienciano at home · Sport Huancayo away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cienciano 29, Sport Huancayo 29.
Cienciano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Sport Huancayo have let in 5 there.
Sport Huancayo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Cienciano have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Cienciano
- at Sporting Cristal14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Sport Huancayo
- vs Universitario14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.