Lech Poznan
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 63% Lech Poznan, 20% draw, 17% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.33, Jagiellonia 1.16.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Jagiellonia
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
- 4 April 2026Jagiellonia 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2025Lech Poznan 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2025Jagiellonia 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 14 September 2024Lech Poznan 5–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 17 February 2024Jagiellonia 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 24 October 2023Lech Poznan 3–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh2 goals
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.51 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lech Poznan D-W-W; Jagiellonia W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.16 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 0.84 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.74 and 1.47.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.16 for Jagiellonia. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.47 for Jagiellonia.