FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 0-6 BSC Young Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% FC Thun, 18% draw, 60% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 4.55, 5.56 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Niklas SteffenG
- 37Lucien DählerD
- 5Nicolas BürgyD
- 19Jan BamertD
- 17Ashvin BalarubanD
- 70Nils ReichmuthM
- 8Fabio SaizM
- 16Justin RothM
- 21Dorian DerbaciM
- 96Brighton LabeauF
- 11Layton StewartF
- 27Michael HeuleD
- 78Valmir MatoshiM
- 30Nico MaierM
- 33Marc GutbubF
- 13Nassim ZoukitM
- 25Tim SpycherG
- 47Fabio FehrD
- 54Louis PassavantD
- 9Furkan DursunF
- 1Marvin KellerG
- 27Lewin BlumD
- 5Gregory WüthrichD
- 15Cedric ZesigerD
- 3Jaouen HadjamD
- 6Edimilson FernandesM
- 8Armin GigovićM
- 10Alvyn SanchesM
- 29Kastriot ImeriM
- 11Joël MonteiroM
- 99Samuel EssendeF
- 30Sandro LauperM
- 13Dominik PechM
- 33Stefan BukinacD
- 22Isaac SchmidtD
- 23Loris BenitoD
- 18Joel MallG
- 39Darian MalešM
- 34Edin EtoskiM
- 25Felix TsimbaF
Form going into FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys
FC Thun
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026
BSC Young Boys
All competitions we cover
- W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 10 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 18 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys
- 14 May 2026FC Thun 3–8 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 8 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 25 January 2026FC Thun 4–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 28 September 2025BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 28 June 2024BSC Young Boys 0–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Thun and BSC Young Boys
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende123
- C. Fassnacht51
- A. Sanches34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BSC Young Boys won 6–0 at FC Thun. The model had made a win for BSC Young Boys its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Joël Monteiro 10' for BSC Young Boys, Lewin Blum 24' for BSC Young Boys, Edimilson Fernandes 33' for BSC Young Boys, Samuel Essende (penalty) 55' for BSC Young Boys, Kastriot Imeri 68' for BSC Young Boys, Samuel Essende 90' for BSC Young Boys. On expected goals it finished 0.61–3.38.