1 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Full time0 6

Final score: FC Thun 0-6 BSC Young Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% FC Thun, 18% draw, 60% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 4.55, 5.56 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts BSC Young Boys at 60% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Thun0%Draw1%BSC Young Boys99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Joël Monteiroassist: Alvyn Sanches
24'
Lewin Blum
33'
Edimilson Fernandesassist: Lewin Blum
🔁Ashvin Balarubanout: Michael Heule
46'
🔁Dorian Derbaciout: Valmir Matoshi
46'
🔁Nils Reichmuthout: Nico Maier
46'
Nicolas Bürgy
53'
55'
Samuel Essende (pen)
60'
Samuel Essende
60'
🔁Joël Monteiroout: Dominik Pech
60'
🔁Gregory Wüthrichout: Sandro Lauper
🔁Brighton Labeauout: Marc Gutbub
63'
66'
🔁Lewin Blumout: Isaac Schmidt
66'
🔁Jaouen Hadjamout: Stefan Bukinac
68'
Kastriot Imeriassist: Samuel Essende
🔁Justin Rothout: Nassim Zoukit
73'
76'
🔁Cedric Zesigerout: Loris Benito
90'
Samuel Essendeassist: Stefan Bukinac

Match stats — FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys

40%Possession60%
10Shots23
3On target16
4Corners5
0.61xG3.38

Goals against chances

FC Thun0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth
BSC Young Boys6 from 3.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Thun
  • 1Niklas SteffenG
  • 37Lucien DählerD
  • 5Nicolas BürgyD
  • 19Jan BamertD
  • 17Ashvin BalarubanD
  • 70Nils ReichmuthM
  • 8Fabio SaizM
  • 16Justin RothM
  • 21Dorian DerbaciM
  • 96Brighton LabeauF
  • 11Layton StewartF
Substitutes
  • 27Michael HeuleD
  • 78Valmir MatoshiM
  • 30Nico MaierM
  • 33Marc GutbubF
  • 13Nassim ZoukitM
  • 25Tim SpycherG
  • 47Fabio FehrD
  • 54Louis PassavantD
  • 9Furkan DursunF
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian
BSC Young Boys
  • 1Marvin KellerG
  • 27Lewin BlumD
  • 5Gregory WüthrichD
  • 15Cedric ZesigerD
  • 3Jaouen HadjamD
  • 6Edimilson FernandesM
  • 8Armin GigovićM
  • 10Alvyn SanchesM
  • 29Kastriot ImeriM
  • 11Joël MonteiroM
  • 99Samuel EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 30Sandro LauperM
  • 13Dominik PechM
  • 33Stefan BukinacD
  • 22Isaac SchmidtD
  • 23Loris BenitoD
  • 18Joel MallG
  • 39Darian MalešM
  • 34Edin EtoskiM
  • 25Felix TsimbaF
Coach: Gerardo Seoane

Form going into FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys

FC Thun

  • L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026

BSC Young Boys

  • W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Thun72141118-77
2BSC Young Boys84402816+1216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys

  • 1 August 2026FC Thun 0–6 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 14 May 2026FC Thun 3–8 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 8 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 25 January 2026FC Thun 4–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 28 September 2025BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 28 June 2024BSC Young Boys 0–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Thun and BSC Young Boys

FC Thun

  • B. Labeau3 goals

BSC Young Boys

  • S. Essende8 goals3 assists
  • C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assists
  • A. Sanches3 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.