Paks
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Paks 2–1 MTK Budapest
The model makes it 44% Paks, 25% draw, 31% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Paks 2.20, MTK Budapest 1.65.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Paks vs MTK Budapest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Paks vs MTK Budapest
Paks
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
- W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026
MTK Budapest
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ujpest15 August 2026
What these results say
- Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for MTK Budapest.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paks vs MTK Budapest
- 20 March 2026MTK Budapest 0–2 PaksNB I
- 6 December 2025Paks 3–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 24 August 2025MTK Budapest 2–3 PaksNB I
- 11 April 2025MTK Budapest 1–2 PaksNB I
- 7 December 2024Paks 4–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 3 December 2024MTK Budapest 3–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Paks and MTK Budapest
Paks
- J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
- Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists
MTK Budapest
- G. Jurek5 goals1 assists
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals3 assists
- I. Bognár2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Paks carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.39 for MTK Budapest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Paks and 1.65 for MTK Budapest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paks rate 0.76 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MTK Budapest rate 0.69 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paks a 0.9% chance of the title and MTK Budapest 2.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Paks against 1.65 for MTK Budapest. Paks's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.74 for MTK Budapest.