10 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Paks vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result

Paks
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Paks 3-0 MTK Budapest.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Paks, 23% draw, 30% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paks at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paks99%Draw1%MTK Budapest0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Vilius Armalas
Balázs Balogh
19'
⚽Ákos Kinyikassist: János Szabó
19'
János Szabó
25'
59'
🔁Kristof Hinoraout: István Bognár
59'
🔁Gyorgy Komaromiout: Soma Szuhodovszki
🔁Balázs Baloghout: Kevin Horvath
67'
69'
🔁Vilius Armalasout: Benedek Varju
🔁Jozsef Szalaiout: Barna Tóth
71'
🔁Zsolt Harasztiout: Milan Pető
71'
⚽Kevin Horvathassist: Barna Tóth
74'
Barna Tóth
75'
78'
🔁Adrian Zeljkovicout: Sámuel Barnabás Bakó
78'
🔁Mark Kerezsi Zalanout: Milán Gábo Klausz
87'
Soma Szuhodovszki
🔁József Windeckerout: Gergo Gyurkits
89'
⚽Milan Petőassist: Barna Tóth
90+1'
90+4'
Benedek Varju

Match stats — Paks vs MTK Budapest

52%Possession48%
20Shots8
7On target2
6Corners4
2.38xG0.51

Goals against chances

Paks3 from 2.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
MTK Budapest0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paks 5-4-1
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 6M. GyőrfiD
  • 12G. VasD
  • 2Á. KinyikD
  • 30J. SzabóD
  • 14E. SilyeD
  • 10Z. HarasztiM
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Substitutes
  • 5B. VécseiM
  • 15C. BelényesiD
  • 27J. GalambosF
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 17M. PetőM
Coach: G. Bognár
MTK Budapest 4-2-3-1
  • 24T. FadgyasG
  • 26V. ArmalasD
  • 4I. BeriashviliD
  • 55S. RadićD
  • 13M. TimoteusD
  • 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
  • 6M. KataM
  • 11G. JurekM
  • 17K. HinoraM
  • 77G. KomáromiM
  • 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
Substitutes
  • 2B. VarjuD
  • 29S. SzuhodovszkiM
  • 27P. KovácsD
  • 9M. KlauszF
  • 10I. BognárM
  • 43Bence VargaG
  • 8A. G. ZuborM
  • 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
Coach: Máté Pinezits

Form going into Paks vs MTK Budapest

Paks

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
  • L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
  • W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026

MTK Budapest

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
  • L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
  • W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Ujpest15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • MTK Budapest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • MTK Budapest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for MTK Budapest.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Paks136252422+220
10MTK Budapest133461827-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paks vs MTK Budapest

  • 20 March 2026MTK Budapest 0–2 PaksNB I
  • 6 December 2025Paks 3–1 MTK BudapestNB I
  • 24 August 2025MTK Budapest 2–3 PaksNB I
  • 11 April 2025MTK Budapest 1–2 PaksNB I
  • 7 December 2024Paks 4–2 MTK BudapestNB I

Leading scorers: Paks and MTK Budapest

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

MTK Budapest

GoalsAssists

  • G. Jurek71
  • Zalán Márk Kerezsi43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paks beat MTK Budapest 3–0. The model had made a win for Paks its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ákos Kinyik 19' for Paks, Kevin Horvath 74' for Paks, Milan Pető 90+1' for Paks. Sent off: Soma Szuhodovszki (MTK Budapest) 87'. On expected goals it finished 2.38–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paks a 29.0% chance to finish in the top four: 33.0% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 22.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.0%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For MTK Budapest the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.4% going in: 30.7% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.4%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Paks v MTK Budapest has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 23% / 30%: the biggest move is Paks's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Paks win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. MTK Budapest win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.