Excelsior
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 33% Excelsior, 24% draw, 43% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.51, PSV Eindhoven 1.74.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Excelsior
- W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 9 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven
- 10 January 2026PSV Eindhoven 5–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 27 September 2025Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 14 January 2025PSV Eindhoven 5–4 ExcelsiorKNVB Beker
- 2 April 2024Excelsior 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 13 January 2024PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 8 April 2023PSV Eindhoven 4–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks2 goals
- I. Yegoian1 goals1 assists
PSV Eindhoven
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Excelsior carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.98 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Excelsior W; PSV Eindhoven D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Excelsior and 1.74 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Excelsior rate 0.90 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.15 and 0.89.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Excelsior, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.74 for PSV Eindhoven. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.89 for PSV Eindhoven.