Willem II
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 10% Willem II, 14% draw, 76% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 10.00, 7.14 and 1.32. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Willem II 1.17, NEC Nijmegen 3.16.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Willem II
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
- 3 May 2025NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 22 December 2024Willem II 4–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 22 December 2021Willem II 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 12 September 2021NEC Nijmegen 0–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 January 2017Willem II 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 25 September 2016NEC Nijmegen 0–0 Willem IIEredivisie
Leading scorers
Willem II
No league goals recorded yet.
NEC Nijmegen
- K. Sierhuis1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.98 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Willem II L; NEC Nijmegen L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Willem II and 3.16 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.65 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 1.22 and 0.95.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 0-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Willem II against 3.16 for NEC Nijmegen. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.95 for NEC Nijmegen.