Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Before kick-off the model made it 12% Willem II, 15% draw, 73% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 8.33, 6.67 and 1.37.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
NEC Nijmegen at 73%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Karst de LeeuwG
- 22Per van LoonD
- 3Finn StamD
- 4Justin HoogmaD
- 24Nathan Tjoe-A-OnD
- 50Eser GürbüzM
- 2Alessandro CiranniM
- 8Kasper BoogaardM
- 7Jaden SloryM
- 19Uriel van AalstF
- 9Devin HaenF
- 83Mats LemmensD
- 5Hidde ter AvestD
- 28Thomas VerheydtF
- 49Ismael MouhoulM
- 41Tygo KotteG
- 21Wouter Van der SteenG
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 15Amine Et-TaibiD
- 48Julian van EsdonkM
- 1Gonzalo CrettazG
- 2Brayann PereiraD
- 21Tobias StormD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 19Adam TahauiM
- 6Darko NejašmićM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9Tjaronn CheryF
- 10Dušan TadićF
- 30Bryan LinssenF
- 20Noe LebretonM
- 7Emre MorF
- 14Kaj SierhuisF
- 66Almugera KabarD
- 12Nikolas PolsterG
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 5Thomas OuwejanD
- 17Bram NuytinckD
Form going into Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
Willem II
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Olympiakos Piraeus11 August 2026
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus4 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
- 3 May 2025NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 22 December 2024Willem II 4–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 22 December 2021Willem II 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 12 September 2021NEC Nijmegen 0–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 January 2017Willem II 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
The result against the call
NEC Nijmegen won 4–1 at Willem II. The model had made a win for NEC Nijmegen its most likely outcome, at 73%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: A. Tahaui 45+2' for NEC Nijmegen, T. Chery 54' for NEC Nijmegen, B. Linssen 64' for NEC Nijmegen, K. Sierhuis 67' for NEC Nijmegen, T. Verheydt 77' for Willem II. On expected goals it finished 1.48–2.66.