Utrecht
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 50% Utrecht, 24% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Utrecht 1.79, AZ Alkmaar 1.24.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Utrecht
- L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
- 1 March 2026Utrecht 2–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 26 October 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 18 January 2025Utrecht 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 29 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 19 May 2024AZ Alkmaar 3–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 3 December 2023Utrecht 1–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers
Utrecht
No league goals recorded yet.
AZ Alkmaar
- C. Stengs1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.82 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Utrecht L; AZ Alkmaar W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Utrecht and 1.24 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Utrecht rate 1.03 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 0.85 and 0.92.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AZ Alkmaar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Utrecht against 1.24 for AZ Alkmaar. Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.92 for AZ Alkmaar.