Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Utrecht, 24% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Utrecht at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. BarkasG
- 23N. VesterlundD
- 2S. HoremansD
- 44M. EerdhuijzenD
- 92A. ZagreD
- 53F. PohlM
- 6G. OfferhausM
- 11A. AlarconM
- 20D. de WitM
- 10Y. CathlineM
- 18A. StepanovF
- 25M. BrouwerG
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 3M. DiddenD
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 8J. van OvereemM
- 14Z. IqbalM
- 34D. van den BergM
- 30K. ParedesM
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 16L. SchoutenD
- 5M. Chavez GarciaD
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 10K. SmitM
- 11R. DaalM
- 35M. MeerdinkF
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 18R. IchiharaD
- 23B. van DuijlD
- 34M. de WitD
- 75H. de WitM
- 33M. SinM
- 27S. van DuijnF
Form going into Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
All competitions we cover
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
- 1 March 2026Utrecht 2–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 26 October 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 18 January 2025Utrecht 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 29 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 19 May 2024AZ Alkmaar 3–3 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AZ Alkmaar won 4–1 at Utrecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Utrecht at 50% and given a win for AZ Alkmaar 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Koopmeiners 45' for AZ Alkmaar, Weslley Patati 47' for AZ Alkmaar, M. Meerdink 49' for AZ Alkmaar, A. Stepanov 62' for Utrecht, A. Oufkir 84' for AZ Alkmaar. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.93.