Piast Gliwice
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 60% Piast Gliwice, 21% draw, 19% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 2.11, Wieczysta Kraków 1.09.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Piast Gliwice
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.43 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Piast Gliwice L-W-L; Wieczysta Kraków L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.09 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.74 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.65 and 1.51.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.09 for Wieczysta Kraków. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.51 for Wieczysta Kraków.