Telstar
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 67% Telstar, 19% draw, 14% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Telstar 2.38, Sparta Rotterdam 1.01.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Telstar
- W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
- L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 11 July 2026Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
- 22 April 2026Telstar 4–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 25 October 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 July 2021Telstar 0–0 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 18 August 2020Telstar 0–0 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 25 January 2019Telstar 1–1 Sparta RotterdamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers
Telstar
- P. Brouwer1 goals1 assists
- Rui Mendes1 goals
Sparta Rotterdam
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Telstar carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.6 for Sparta Rotterdam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Telstar W; Sparta Rotterdam L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Telstar and 1.01 for Sparta Rotterdam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Telstar rate 0.92 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.82 and 1.37.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Telstar against 1.01 for Sparta Rotterdam. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.37 for Sparta Rotterdam.