Raków Częstochowa
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Raków Częstochowa 2–1 GKS Katowice
The model makes it 38% Raków Częstochowa, 26% draw, 36% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.86, GKS Katowice 1.76.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 38% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
Raków Częstochowa
- L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
GKS Katowice
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
- 16 July 2026GKS Katowice 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaFriendlies Clubs
- 9 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 3–3 GKS KatowiceCup
- 7 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 19 July 2025GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 8 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 3 August 2024GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.7 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.76 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.88 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 0.94 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GKS Katowice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raków Częstochowa a 0% chance of the title and GKS Katowice 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.76 for GKS Katowice. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.28 for GKS Katowice.