9 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Referee: Damian Kos
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Raków Częstochowa, 24% draw, 36% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Raków Częstochowa at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa0%Draw1%GKS Katowice99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Ilia Shkurinassist: Bartosz Nowak
⚽Patryk Makuch
37'
48'
⚽Bartosz Nowak (pen)
57'
⚽Mateusz·Kowalczyk
60'
Lukas Klemenz
🔁Marko Bulatout: Adin molnar
61'
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Adam Basse
61'
🔁Jean Carlosout: Isak Brusberg
61'
Karol Struski
68'
70'
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Borja Galan
70'
🔁Alan Czerwińskiout: Arkadiusz Jedrych
🔁Karol Struskiout: Bogdan·Mircetic
72'
🔁Patryk Makuchout: Lamine Diaby Fadiga
76'
78'
🔁Mateusz·Kowalczykout: Sebastian Milewski
78'
🔁Mateusz Wdowiakout: Eman Marković
82'
Borja Galan
85'
Gabriel Kobylak
87'
🔁Ilia Shkurinout: Adam Zreľák
Jerzy Napieraj
90'
90+1'
⚽Borja Galanassist: Bartosz Nowak

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

60%Possession40%
18Shots18
4On target8
6Corners4
1.2xG2.57

Goals against chances

Raków Częstochowa1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
GKS Katowice4 from 2.57 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 9P. MakuchM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 11M. EmreliF
Substitutes
  • 19N. ZätterströmD
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 44B. MirčetićM
  • 88A. MolnarM
  • 36M. PerovićM
Coach: T. Kaczmarek
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 99A. ZreľákF
  • 15E. MarkovićM
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 8Borja GalánM
Coach: R. Górak

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
  • W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
  • L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026

GKS Katowice

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
  • W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
  • GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812
8GKS Katowice147072520+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

  • 16 July 2026GKS Katowice 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 3–3 GKS KatowiceCup
  • 7 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 19 July 2025GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 8 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 3 August 2024GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin82
  • B. Nowak78

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

GKS Katowice won 4–1 at Raków Częstochowa. The model had leaned towards a win for Raków Częstochowa at 40% and given a win for GKS Katowice 36%. The goals: Ilia Shkurin 34' for GKS Katowice, Patryk Makuch 37' for Raków Częstochowa, Bartosz Nowak (penalty) 48' for GKS Katowice, Mateusz·Kowalczyk 57' for GKS Katowice, Borja Galan 90+1' for GKS Katowice. On expected goals it finished 1.20–2.57.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Raków Częstochowa a 27.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.8% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.9%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For GKS Katowice the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 26.5% going in: 31.6% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 22.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.6%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 24% / 36%: the biggest move is Raków Częstochowa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Raków Częstochowa win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. GKS Katowice win36%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.