Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Wieczysta Kraków 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Wieczysta Kraków, 26% draw, 30% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Wieczysta Kraków at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77M. KochalskiG
- 15A. ĐermanovićD
- 16A. MilićD
- 55D. DujmovićD
- 4K. FilaM
- 10T. ChristensenM
- 20M. MaigaardM
- 33K. PestkaM
- 19José de la RosaF
- 9E. KoulourisF
- 12Lucas PiazónF
- 7Lisandro SemedoF
- 27M. VojtkoD
- 13K. ZagrodzkiD
- 17K. DankowskiD
- 21B. BiałekF
- 8B. LedermanM
- 88C. LungoyiF
- 1A. MikułkoG
- 97T. MrasM
- 12R. LeszczyńskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangréD
- 35M. KamińskiD
- 34Afonso SilvaD
- 21Ž. RogeljM
- 18J. PrširM
- 5Sidnei TavaresM
- 23P. KunM
- 57S. AkereF
- 20Ł. SekulskiF
- 7O. KobackiF
- 41M. WięckowskiD
- 88K. SavvidīsM
- 6K. PomorskiM
- 44P. MisiakD
- 91G. KuchkoM
- 9D. JurićF
- 16F. HiszpańskiM
- 10S. HamulićF
- 19D. GallapeniD
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
Wisla Plock
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
What these results say
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón42
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wieczysta Kraków beat Wisla Plock 3–0. The model had made a win for Wieczysta Kraków its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lucas Piazón 34' for Wieczysta Kraków, Lisandro Semedo 68' for Wieczysta Kraków, Lisandro Semedo 90+6' for Wieczysta Kraków. On expected goals it finished 1.91–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wieczysta Kraków a 40.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.6% after a win, 42.6% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.6%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.
For Wisla Plock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.9% going in: 11.0% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 21.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wieczysta Kraków v Wisla Plock has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Wieczysta Kraków's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wieczysta Kraków win44%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Wisla Plock win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Wieczysta Kraków's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Wisla Plock's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.