Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wieczysta Kraków 2–1 Wisla Plock
The model makes it 41% Wieczysta Kraków, 28% draw, 31% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.68, Wisla Plock 1.28.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wieczysta Kraków at 41% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
Wisla Plock
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
What these results say
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wieczysta Kraków carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.5 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.28 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.80 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.62 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Plock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wieczysta Kraków a 0% chance of the title and Wisla Plock 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wieczysta Kraków the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.28 for Wisla Plock. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for Wisla Plock.