Vitória SC
vs
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 42% Vitória SC, 28% draw, 30% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.38, Casa Pia 1.14.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vitória SC
- L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026
- L0-1Arouca8 August 2026
Casa Pia
- L0-7Benfica17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Casa Pia
- 11 May 2026Vitória SC 0–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 28 December 2025Casa Pia 0–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 1 March 2025Vitória SC 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2024Casa Pia 1–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 24 February 2024Vitória SC 0–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 23 September 2023Casa Pia 0–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vitória SC carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.93 for Casa Pia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Vitória SC L-L; Casa Pia L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Vitória SC and 1.14 for Casa Pia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitória SC rate 1.06 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Casa Pia rate 0.71 and 0.69.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitória SC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vitória SC against 1.14 for Casa Pia. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.69 for Casa Pia.