Estoril vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 0-0 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Estoril, 28% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estoril at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Arouca
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 7André LacximicantM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 98Fabrício GarciaM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 16M. TurkG
- 80Luís Maria Viegas Abreu Campos GomesM
- 35S. AmissahD
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 9A. CamblanM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 1J. VinarčíkG
Form going into Estoril vs Arouca
Estoril
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
Arouca
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Arouca
- 7 September 2026Estoril 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2026Arouca 3–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 7 November 2025Estoril 4–3 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2025Arouca 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Estoril 4–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 20 January 2024Estoril 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estoril and Arouca
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Arouca
- Barbero4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.