Estoril vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 0-0 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Estoril, 28% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estoril at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Arouca
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 7André LacximicantM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 98Fabrício GarciaM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 16M. TurkG
- 80Luís Maria Viegas Abreu Campos GomesM
- 35S. AmissahD
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 9A. CamblanM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 1J. VinarčíkG
Form going into Estoril vs Arouca
Estoril
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
Arouca
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Estoril conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Estoril had two goals or fewer.
- Arouca won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arouca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Arouca
- 6 April 2026Arouca 3–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 7 November 2025Estoril 4–3 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2025Arouca 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Estoril 4–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 20 January 2024Estoril 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estoril and Arouca
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estoril and Arouca drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.