Liga I · Regular Season - 4 · 7 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Uta Arad vs Rapid

Arena Francisc Neuman, Arad

The model makes it 19% Uta Arad, 24% draw, 57% Rapid — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Uta Arad 0.92, Rapid 1.78.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

51%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%0-1 11%0-2 11%

Form going into this match

Uta Arad

  • L0-1away to FC Voluntari1 August 2026
  • D2-2Oțelul24 July 2026
  • L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova18 July 2026

Rapid

  • W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj2 August 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Botosani27 July 2026
  • W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe20 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Uta Arad301227-51
2Rapid321052+37

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs Rapid

  • 26 January 2026Uta Arad 1–2 RapidLiga I
  • 29 August 2025Rapid 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
  • 9 November 2024Rapid 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
  • 13 July 2024Uta Arad 1–1 RapidLiga I
  • 28 February 2024Rapid 4–1 Uta AradLiga I
  • 20 October 2023Uta Arad 2–2 RapidLiga I

Leading scorers

Uta Arad

No league goals recorded yet.

Rapid

  • A. Dobre2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Uta Arad carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.8 for Rapid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Uta Arad L-D-L; Rapid W-D-W.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Uta Arad and 1.78 for Rapid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Uta Arad rate 0.44 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid rate 1.00 and 1.11.

That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rapid the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Uta Arad against 1.78 for Rapid. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.11 for Rapid.