VfL Bochum
vs
Hertha BSC
The model makes it 58% VfL Bochum, 21% draw, 21% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 2.24, Hertha BSC 1.30.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC
- 14 March 2026Hertha BSC 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 18 October 2025VfL Bochum 3–2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 20 May 2023Hertha Berlin 1–1 Vfl BochumBundesliga
- 21 January 2023Vfl Bochum 3–1 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
- 4 February 2022Hertha Berlin 1–1 Vfl BochumBundesliga
- 12 September 2021Vfl Bochum 1–3 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.72 for Hertha BSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.30 for Hertha BSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.94 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hertha BSC rate 0.96 and 1.26.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Bochum the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.3 for Hertha BSC. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.26 for Hertha BSC.