7 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VfL Bochum 0-1 Hertha BSC.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% VfL Bochum, 21% draw, 21% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfL Bochum at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Bochum0%Draw7%Hertha BSC93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Julian Eitschberger
39'
⚽S. Gronningassist: S. Gouram
🔁J. Mbomout: M. Pannewig
46'
🔁Y. Karademirout: K. Mets
46'
48'
Paul Seguin
Maximilian Wittek
50'
Philipp Hofmann
58'
🔁A. Crimaldiout: G. Holtmann
61'
63'
🔁S. Gronningout: L. Schuler
63'
🔁S. Gouramout: J. Thorsteinsson
73'
Josip Brekalo
🔁K. Miyoshiout: C. Rasmussen
76'
78'
Deyovaisio Zeefuik
🔁E. Cokajout: D. Hanslik
86'
86'
🔁J. Brekaloout: O. Adewumi
86'
🔁P. Seguinout: P. Klemens
86'
🔁J. Eitschbergerout: M. Dardai
90+1'
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

Match stats — VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC

56%Possession44%
13Shots11
3On target2
5Corners2
1.04xG0.64

Goals against chances

VfL Bochum0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth
Hertha BSC1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 13O. OlsenD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 8J. MbomM
  • 6E. CokajM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 10B. TazM
  • 37A. CrimaldiM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 38H. RollekeG
  • 17G. HoltmannF
  • 7C. RasmussenF
  • 27B. DrakasF
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 35K. KoscierskiD
Coach: Uwe Rosler
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
  • 35M. GersbeckG
  • 2J. EitschbergerD
  • 44L. GechterD
  • 27N. KolbeD
  • 42D. ZeefuikD
  • 8K. SessaM
  • 30P. SeguinM
  • 22M. WinklerM
  • 33S. GouramM
  • 7J. BrekaloM
  • 17S. GronningF
Substitutes
  • 43T. GollerG
  • 18L. SchulerF
  • 19O. AdewumiF
  • 41P. KlemensD
  • 47S. TelibM
  • 23J. ThorsteinssonF
  • 31M. DardaiD
  • 29J. DialloD
  • 21B. Mamuzah LumM
Coach: Stefan Leitl

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8VfL Bochum114251113-214
1Hertha BSC111010259+1631

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC

  • 14 March 2026Hertha BSC 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 18 October 2025VfL Bochum 3–2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 20 May 2023Hertha Berlin 1–1 VfL BochumBundesliga
  • 21 January 2023VfL Bochum 3–1 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
  • 4 February 2022Hertha Berlin 1–1 VfL BochumBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC

VfL Bochum

GoalsAssists

  • P. Hofmann50

Hertha BSC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brekalo55
  • O. Adewumi50
  • S. Grønning41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hertha BSC won 1–0 at VfL Bochum. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Bochum at 58% and given a win for Hertha BSC 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: S. Gronning 39' for Hertha BSC. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.