Esteghlal FC
vs
Sanat Naft
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal FC 2–0 Sanat Naft
The model makes it 68% Esteghlal FC, 20% draw, 12% Sanat Naft — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Esteghlal FC 2.35, Sanat Naft 0.70.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Esteghlal FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Esteghlal FC's rating is built from 32 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Sanat Naft's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Esteghlal FC are 5th on 21 points from 11 games; Sanat Naft are 16th on 10 points from 11 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Esteghlal Khuzestan.
- Sanat Naft have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Last 6 meetings: Esteghlal FC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2025, ended Esteghlal FC 2–0 Sanat Naft.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal FC vs Sanat Naft
Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal FC at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esteghlal FC vs Sanat Naft
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D2-2away to Esteghlal Khuzestan7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC23 October 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
Sanat Naft
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W1-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin5 November 2026
- L0-3away to Tractor Sazi22 October 2026
- W2-1Aluminium Arak17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
- L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Esteghlal FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
- Sanat Naft scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sanat Naft conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sanat Naft had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 21 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esteghlal FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Sanat Naft
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 42% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Esteghlal FC vs Sanat Naft
- 24 May 2025Esteghlal FC 2–0 Sanat NaftHazfi Cup
- 16 February 2024Esteghlal FC 1–0 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 10 August 2023Sanat Naft 0–3 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 5 May 2023Esteghlal FC 1–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 25 December 2022Sanat Naft 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 11 March 2022Esteghlal FC 1–0 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esteghlal FC a 14.3% chance of the title and Sanat Naft 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Esteghlal FC against 0.70 for Sanat Naft. Esteghlal FC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.93 for Sanat Naft.
How the model reaches 68% for Esteghlal FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esteghlal FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Esteghlal FC's ratings add 12 points and Sanat Naft's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 68%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Esteghlal FC's ratings55%+12
- Sanat Naft's ratings68%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Esteghlal FC at home · Sanat Naft away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal FC 11, Sanat Naft 11.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sanat Naft have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal FC
- at ZOB Ahan3 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Neftchi Fergana7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 77%
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 64%
Sanat Naft
- vs Kheybar Khorramabad5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Gol Gohar14 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs ZOB Ahan19 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Nassaji Mazandaran25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.