Bayern München
vs
Union Berlin
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayern München 2–0 Union Berlin
The model makes it 52% Bayern München, 26% draw, 22% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Bayern München 2.09, Union Berlin 0.96.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bayern München vs Union Berlin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Bayern München wins, grey are draws, red are Union Berlin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayern München vs Union Berlin
Bayern München
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
Union Berlin
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayern München | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs Union Berlin
- 21 March 2026Bayern München 4–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 3 December 2025Union Berlin 2–3 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
- 8 November 2025Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 15 March 2025Union Berlin 1–1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Bayern München 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 20 April 2024Union Berlin 1–5 Bayern MunichBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayern München and Union Berlin
Bayern München
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Union Berlin
- T. Skarke2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bayern München carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.81 for Union Berlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Bayern München and 0.96 for Union Berlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayern München rate 1.21 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Berlin rate 0.97 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Bayern München against 0.96 for Union Berlin. Bayern München's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.06 for Union Berlin.