Bayern München vs Union Berlin Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Bayern München, 26% draw, 22% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayern München vs Union Berlin
Line-ups
- 1M. NeuerG
- 44J. StanišićD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 4J. TahD
- 19A. DaviesD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 17M. OliseM
- 10J. MusialaM
- 14L. DíazM
- 9H. KaneF
- 40J. UrbigG
- 7S. GnabryF
- 11N. BrownD
- 8T. BischofM
- 21H. ItoD
- 42L. KarlM
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 39Bara NdiayeM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 1F. RønnowG
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 8R. KhediraM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 19J. HabererM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 9Livan BurcuF
- 30K. ImeriM
- 6A. KemleinM
- 17D. KöhnD
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 31M. RaabG
- 21T. SkarkeM
- 24R. SkovM
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
Form going into Bayern München vs Union Berlin
Bayern München
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
Union Berlin
Bundesliga
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 17 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs Union Berlin
- 21 March 2026Bayern München 4–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 3 December 2025Union Berlin 2–3 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
- 8 November 2025Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 15 March 2025Union Berlin 1–1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Bayern München 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayern München and Union Berlin
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise63
- H. Kane45
- L. Díaz41
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 7–0. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Jamal Musiala 18' for Bayern München, Harry Kane (penalty) 39' for Bayern München, Michael Olise 43' for Bayern München, Harry Kane 54' for Bayern München, Ismael Saibari 70' for Bayern München, Michael Olise 73' for Bayern München, Michael Olise 76' for Bayern München.
How the call on Bayern München v Union Berlin has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Bayern München's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bayern München win52%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Union Berlin win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.