Albacete
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Albacete 2–1 Cordoba
The model makes it 42% Albacete, 28% draw, 30% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Albacete 1.77, Cordoba 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Albacete vs Cordoba
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Albacete wins, grey are draws, red are Cordoba wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Albacete at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Albacete vs Cordoba
Albacete
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Castellón6 September 2026
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Sociedad II22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026
Cordoba
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026
- L1-3Granada CF30 August 2026
- W2-1Girona21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Burgos16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Albacete | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Albacete vs Cordoba
- 15 May 2026Cordoba 1–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 25 October 2025Albacete 1–3 CordobaSegunda División
- 1 June 2025Cordoba 1–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 6 October 2024Albacete 1–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 16 December 2020Cordoba 1–0 AlbaceteCopa del Rey
- 2 February 2019Cordoba 1–3 AlbaceteSegunda División
Leading scorers: Albacete and Cordoba
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Cordoba
- Percan1 goals1 assists
- Eder García1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Albacete carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.45 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Albacete and 1.32 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Albacete rate 0.66 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 0.74 and 1.65.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Albacete the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Albacete against 1.32 for Cordoba. Albacete's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.65 for Cordoba.