England
vs
Croatia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: England 2–1 Croatia
The model makes it 54% England, 24% draw, 22% Croatia — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: England 1.99, Croatia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
Edge to England: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. England's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Croatia's from its last 4 matches.
Key facts
- England are 2nd on 9 points from 4 games; Croatia are 3rd on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- England are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Czechia.
- Croatia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Spain.
- Last 6 meetings: England 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Croatia 0–7 England.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: England vs Croatia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts England at 54% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 1,276 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into England vs Croatia
England
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0Czechia6 October 2026
- W7-0away to Croatia3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Czechia29 September 2026
- L2-3Spain26 September 2026
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Spain6 October 2026
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026
What these results say
- England scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- England won 3 of these 4 matches.
- England kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Croatia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Croatia had three goals or more.
- Croatia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: England vs Croatia
- 3 October 2026Croatia 0–7 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 17 June 2026England 4–2 CroatiaWorld Cup
- 13 June 2021England 1–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 November 2018England 2–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
- 12 October 2018Croatia 0–0 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 11 July 2018Croatia 2–1 EnglandWorld Cup
Leading scorers: England and Croatia
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane61
- A. Gordon31
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
England carry a model rating of 7.3 against 7.03 for Croatia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for England and 1.09 for Croatia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
England rate 1.75 in attack and 0.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Croatia rate 1.21 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives England the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for England against 1.09 for Croatia. England's attack/defence rating is 1.75/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.84 for Croatia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for England to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for England to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, England's ratings add 8 points and Croatia's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- England's ratings47%+8
- Croatia's ratings54%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
England
- at Spain15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 28%
Croatia
- vs Czechia15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.