Holstein Kiel
vs
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Holstein Kiel 1–2 Hertha BSC
The model makes it 32% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 40% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.33, Hertha BSC 1.66.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Holstein Kiel are 16th on 4 points from 6 games; Hertha BSC are top on 18 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Holstein Kiel have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to VfL Osnabrück.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Dynamo Dresden.
- Last 4 meetings: Hertha BSC 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Hertha BSC 0–1 Holstein Kiel.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hertha BSC at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
Hertha BSC
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC won every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
- 25 April 2026Hertha BSC 0–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 29 November 2025Holstein Kiel 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 1 March 2024Hertha Berlin 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 24 September 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres4 goals2 assists
Hertha BSC
- J. Brekalo4 goals3 assists
- J. Þorsteinsson3 goals1 assist
- O. Adewumi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Holstein Kiel carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.64 for Hertha BSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.66 for Hertha BSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Holstein Kiel rate 0.60 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hertha BSC rate 0.84 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Holstein Kiel a 0.1% chance of the title and Hertha BSC 27.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.66 for Hertha BSC. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.29 for Hertha BSC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Holstein Kiel at home · Hertha BSC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Holstein Kiel 6, Hertha BSC 6.
Holstein Kiel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hertha BSC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Holstein Kiel
- vs Dynamo Dresden24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at VfL Wolfsburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 24%
Hertha BSC
- vs Arminia Bielefeld24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs VfL Wolfsburg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Energie Cottbus21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.