Hannover 96
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hannover 96 1–0 FC St. Pauli
The model makes it 36% Hannover 96, 29% draw, 35% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hannover 96 1.35, FC St. Pauli 1.33.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Hannover 96 are 10th on 7 points from 6 games; FC St. Pauli are 8th on 7 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Hannover 96 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to VfL Bochum.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Energie Cottbus.
- Last 6 meetings: FC St. Pauli 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2024, ended Hannover 96 1–2 FC St. Pauli.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hannover 96 at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli
Hannover 96
- W2-1VfL Bochum20 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Nürnberg11 September 2026
- D2-2Karlsruher SC4 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Darmstadt 9830 August 2026
- L0-1VfL Wolfsburg16 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
What these results say
- Hannover 96 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hannover 96 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli
- 21 April 2024Hannover 96 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 10 November 2023FC St. Pauli 0–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 24 March 2023FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hannover 96Friendlies Clubs
- 5 February 2023FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 23 July 2022Hannover 96 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 20 February 2022FC St. Pauli 0–3 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hannover 96 carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.63 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Hannover 96 and 1.33 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hannover 96 rate 0.70 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.72 and 1.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC St. Pauli, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hannover 96 a 1.7% chance of the title and FC St. Pauli 3.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hannover 96 the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hannover 96 against 1.33 for FC St. Pauli. Hannover 96's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.12 for FC St. Pauli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hannover 96 at home · FC St. Pauli away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Hannover 96 6, FC St. Pauli 6.
Hannover 96 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hannover 96
- at Eintracht Braunschweig24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- vs Dynamo Dresden31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- at 1. FC Heidenheim7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
FC St. Pauli
- at SV Darmstadt 9824 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 42%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at 1. FC Magdeburg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs VfL Bochum21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.