Energie Cottbus
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Energie Cottbus 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg
The model makes it 35% Energie Cottbus, 26% draw, 39% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.85, 1. FC Nürnberg 2.00.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Energie Cottbus are 7th on 8 points from 6 games; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Energie Cottbus are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC St. Pauli.
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Karlsruher SC.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
- W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
What these results say
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus
- T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assist
- J. Butler3 goals1 assist
1. FC Nürnberg
- M. Zoma6 goals
- J. Justvan3 goals1 assist
- P. Scobel3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.67 for 1. FC Nürnberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Energie Cottbus and 2.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 0.90 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.83 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Energie Cottbus a 0.9% chance of the title and 1. FC Nürnberg 26.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 2.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.19 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Energie Cottbus at home · 1. FC Nürnberg away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Energie Cottbus 6, 1. FC Nürnberg 6.
Energie Cottbus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Energie Cottbus
- at 1. FC Heidenheim24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- vs VfL Bochum31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 42%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- vs Hertha BSC21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
1. FC Nürnberg
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- at FC St. Pauli31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs SV Darmstadt 987 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.