VfL Wolfsburg
vs
1. FC Heidenheim
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim
The model makes it 39% VfL Wolfsburg, 28% draw, 33% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 1.63, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.39.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- VfL Wolfsburg are 4th on 11 points from 6 games; 1. FC Heidenheim are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- VfL Wolfsburg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 5-1 win at home to SV Darmstadt 98.
- 1. FC Heidenheim are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Arminia Bielefeld.
- Last 6 meetings: VfL Wolfsburg 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Heidenheim.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
1. FC Heidenheim
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
- W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Heidenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
- 17 January 2026VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
- 23 August 20251. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 29 March 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
- 10 November 20241. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 20 January 2024FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 19 August 2023VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC HeidenheimBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
- R. Glatzel4 goals1 assist
- F. Reese3 goals4 assists
- A. Bernhardsson3 goals3 assists
1. FC Heidenheim
- J. Schöppner3 goals
- B. Zivzivadze3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Wolfsburg carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.69 for 1. FC Heidenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.39 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.81 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.85 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Heidenheim, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Wolfsburg a 11.9% chance of the title and 1. FC Heidenheim 22.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.39 for 1. FC Heidenheim. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.17 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfL Wolfsburg at home · 1. FC Heidenheim away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Wolfsburg 6, 1. FC Heidenheim 6.
VfL Wolfsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Heidenheim have let in 4 there.
1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); VfL Wolfsburg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VfL Wolfsburg
- at VfL Bochum24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- vs VfL Osnabrück31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 51%
- at Hertha BSC7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Holstein Kiel21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
1. FC Heidenheim
- vs Energie Cottbus24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
- at Karlsruher SC31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
- vs Hannover 967 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- at SV Darmstadt 9821 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.