FC St. Pauli
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
The model makes it 32% FC St. Pauli, 23% draw, 45% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.61, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.92.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 19 July 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–1 FC St. PauliFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2024FC St. Pauli 3–2 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
- 19 August 2023SpVgg Greuther Furth 0–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 11 March 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
- 3 September 2022SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 25 April 2021FC St. Pauli 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
The two sides
FC St. Pauli carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.96 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.92 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Pauli rate 0.88 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 1.20 and 0.97.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC St. Pauli against 1.92 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. FC St. Pauli's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.97 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.